# ZIP 12208: H-1B profile

> ZIP profile: https://www.xh1b.org/zip/12208 · [county](https://www.xh1b.org/county/36001)

Employers in 12208 (NY) filed 427 certified H-1B applications requesting 467 workers across 90 companies. The median offered wage is $69,285/yr. The largest filers are Albany Medical Center, Albany Medical College and Health Research Inc.. The displacement model assigns 920 worker-equivalent exposures to these filings. Separately, 360 layoffs appear in matched WARN notices.

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| H-1B filings | 427 |
| Workers requested | 467 |
| US workers displaced (modeled) | 920 |
| Distinct employers | 90 |
| H-1B filings with offered wage data | 400 |
| Filings below prevailing wage (share with offered wage data) | 0% |
| Wage gap vs BLS | -9% |

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Average offered wage | $96K |
| Average prevailing wage | $73K |
| Average BLS market wage | $105K |

Headline filing and employer counts use certified H-1B records. The below-prevailing share uses filings with offered wage data as its denominator. Offered, prevailing and BLS averages use independently available values; their populations can differ. The BLS reference averages national occupation medians linked to certified filings, using each occupation's latest available year. It is not a ZIP-wide market median. The employer list includes all LCA outcomes and visa classes; quality-flagged rows are excluded.

## Top employers (of 92)

| Employer | Filings | Workers | Avg wage |
|---|---|---|---|
| [Albany Medical Center](https://www.xh1b.org/org/albany-medical-center-98d353cb25) | 117 | 117 | $63K |
| [Albany Medical College](https://www.xh1b.org/org/albany-medical-college-16129f0dc7) | 114 | 114 | $154K |
| [Health Research Inc.](https://www.xh1b.org/org/health-research-inc-68467eb738) | 29 | 29 | $57K |
| [Albany College of Pharmacy and Health Sciences](https://www.xh1b.org/org/albany-college-of-pharmacy-and-health-sc-6d4e1419f4) | 12 | 12 | $59K |
| [Conexus MedStaff LLC](https://www.xh1b.org/org/conexus-medstaff-llc-75f11c57d9) | 10 | 10 | $58K |
| [Albany Medical Center Hospital](https://www.xh1b.org/org/albany-medical-center-hospital-24a305b08b) | 8 | 8 | $80K |
| [Albany Leadership Charter High School for Girls](https://www.xh1b.org/org/albany-leadership-charter-high-school-fo-201a4ef7b2) | 8 | 8 | $49K |
| [Comtrix Solutions, Inc.](https://www.xh1b.org/org/comtrix-solutions-inc-ea7dcc9394) | 6 | 26 | $54K |

## SOC breakdown (of 60)

| SOC | Title | Filings | Workers | Avg wage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29-2011 | Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists | 128 | 151 | $61K |
| 19-1029 | Biological Scientists, All Other | 44 | 44 | $56K |
| 29-1069 | Physicians and Surgeons, All Other | 31 | 31 | $180K |
| 15-1252 | Software Developers | 27 | 27 | $93K |
| 15-1132 | Software Developers, Applications | 22 | 24 | $93K |
| 19-1042 | Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists | 19 | 19 | $70K |
| 19-1022 | Microbiologists | 10 | 10 | $61K |
| 29-1229 | Physicians, All Other | 9 | 9 | $202K |

## Recent LCA filings (latest 10 of 437)

| Case number | Employer | Job title | Wage | Decision | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| [I-200-26072-700534](https://www.xh1b.org/lca/I-200-26072-700534) | [ALBANY MEDICAL CENTER](https://www.xh1b.org/org/albany-medical-center-98d353cb25) | CLINICAL LABORATORY TECHNOLOGIST II | $73K | 2026-03-19 | Certified |
| [I-200-26072-700524](https://www.xh1b.org/lca/I-200-26072-700524) | [ALBANY MEDICAL CENTER](https://www.xh1b.org/org/albany-medical-center-98d353cb25) | CLINICAL LABORATORY TECHNOLOGIST II | $73K | 2026-03-19 | Certified |
| [I-200-26072-700539](https://www.xh1b.org/lca/I-200-26072-700539) | [ALBANY MEDICAL CENTER](https://www.xh1b.org/org/albany-medical-center-98d353cb25) | CLINICAL LABORATORY TECHNOLOGIST II | $73K | 2026-03-19 | Certified |
| [I-200-26072-700527](https://www.xh1b.org/lca/I-200-26072-700527) | [ALBANY MEDICAL CENTER](https://www.xh1b.org/org/albany-medical-center-98d353cb25) | CLINICAL LABORATORY TECHNOLOGIST II | $73K | 2026-03-19 | Certified |
| [I-200-26069-691605](https://www.xh1b.org/lca/I-200-26069-691605) | [ALBANY MEDICAL COLLEGE](https://www.xh1b.org/org/albany-medical-college-16129f0dc7) | PHYSICIAN | $224K | 2026-03-17 | Certified |
| [I-200-26049-649696](https://www.xh1b.org/lca/I-200-26049-649696) | [VantageERP LLC](https://www.xh1b.org/org/vantageerp-llc-8aa1933672) | Cloud Engineer | $100K | 2026-02-25 | Certified |
| [I-200-26023-583414](https://www.xh1b.org/lca/I-200-26023-583414) | [ALBANY MEDICAL COLLEGE](https://www.xh1b.org/org/albany-medical-college-16129f0dc7) | ASSISTANT PROFESSOR | $100K | 2026-01-29 | Certified |
| [I-200-26023-583415](https://www.xh1b.org/lca/I-200-26023-583415) | [ALBANY MEDICAL COLLEGE](https://www.xh1b.org/org/albany-medical-college-16129f0dc7) | POSTDOCTORAL FELLOW | $62K | 2026-01-29 | Certified |
| [I-200-25349-482623](https://www.xh1b.org/lca/I-200-25349-482623) | [ALBANY MEDICAL CENTER](https://www.xh1b.org/org/albany-medical-center-98d353cb25) | CLINICAL LABORATORY TECHNOLOGIST II | $73K | 2025-12-22 | Certified |
| [I-200-25349-482670](https://www.xh1b.org/lca/I-200-25349-482670) | [ALBANY MEDICAL CENTER](https://www.xh1b.org/org/albany-medical-center-98d353cb25) | CLINICAL LABORATORY TECHNOLOGIST II | $73K | 2025-12-22 | Certified |

## WARN mass-layoff notices

| Employer | Laid off | City | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| [Villa Mary Immaculate d/b/a St. Peter’s Nursing and Rehabilitation Center (SPNRC)](https://www.xh1b.org/org/villa-mary-immaculate-dba-st-peters-nurs-bce52231e9) | 133 | - | 2026-06-30 |
| [Bionano Genomics, Inc.](https://www.xh1b.org/org/bionano-genomics-inc-7f529cbe08) | 2 | - | 2024-05-24 |
| [Envision Physicians Services, LLC](https://www.xh1b.org/org/envision-physicians-services-llc-bf2828e776) | 167 | - | 2023-06-14 |
| [Ordway Research Institute Inc.](https://www.xh1b.org/org/ordway-research-institute-d8b1903195) | 24 | - | 2011-03-16 |
| [The Research Foundation of SUNY - IT Department](https://www.xh1b.org/org/the-research-foundation-of-suny---it-dep-78e96f0758) | 34 | - | Notice date: 2012-01-10 |

_ZIP-level displacement uses the LCA formula only (no WARN component)._

## Modeled consequence estimates

**Conditional impacts associated with modeled displacement**

These are conditional population estimates scaled from ZIP 12208's current modeled displacement count. They are not observed outcomes, a prediction about any person, or evidence that this entity caused displacement.

[Explore ZIP 12208’s scenario: Earnings · children · health · adjust the worker count](https://www.xh1b.org/downstream?workers=919.875&entity=ZIP%2012208#downstream-explorer)

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Exposure method version | Exposure method v1.2 (stored with this aggregate) · benchmarked to the latest BLS survey. |
| Consequence parameters v1.54; build | `v1.54+engine0.4.1+d84162591c94d06c8148c4834ae705ff3f9a015c29955d95d26749834cd136ed+national-reference1` |

| Outcome | Applicability | Estimate | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excess deaths over 20 years | Illustrative reference calculation · population applicability is not established | 26.4544357492 | 10.3598950297 to 46.0816946235 |
| Child lifetime earnings lost | Illustrative reference calculation · population applicability is not established | $440,522,660.93 | $114,421,470.37 to $743,739,557.42 |

20-year reference scenario: high-seniority male displacement effect. This is not an expected count for an unknown population.

Source-profile mortality point (deaths): 26.4544357492

No sustained excess from year 7 (deaths): 18.8789180649

Declared structural comparison; not a confidence interval or a model probability.

Baseline population: US prime-age men (45-54).

Canadian father–son firm-closure effect, applied to a US male lifetime-earnings baseline in 2024 dollars. The reference result uses 2 children per worker.

Baseline population: US male median lifetime earnings.

The mortality effect comes from a high-seniority male study cohort. Treat the count as a reference scenario unless the population matches. A mixed population needs a reviewed transport rule.

The range is the engine's parameter-support envelope: it varies declared parameters only and adds none of the exposure input's uncertainty.

### The math, limits, and citations

Illustrative reference calculation scaled by the supplied worker-equivalent exposure. Two children per worker; 20-year mortality follow-up. This does not establish that an entity caused these outcomes.

Input SHA-256: `a771d456f24b73ab4a27e51e83ec07640a0d93114d4ffc968aae925e700d843d`

Excess deaths over 20 years: `{"status":"illustrative_reference_calculation","eligible_for_public_headline":false,"target_population":null,"decision":null,"transport_assumptions":["high-tenure male mass-layoff cohort, ages 45–54","Pennsylvania early-1980s response transported to target place and calendar time","fixed baseline age rate over follow-up; cohort aging is not modeled"],"reason":"Target cohort applicability and transport have not been established for this outcome; display as an illustrative reference calculation."}`
Child lifetime earnings lost: `{"status":"illustrative_reference_calculation","eligible_for_public_headline":false,"target_population":null,"decision":null,"transport_assumptions":["Canadian father-son firm-closure estimate transported to the target families","US male synthetic career earnings convert a relative adult earnings effect to dollars","lifetime dollars are undiscounted; this is not an annual loss"],"reason":"Target cohort applicability and transport have not been established for this outcome; display as an illustrative reference calculation."}`

Projection eligibility: `{"child":{"status":"direct_estimate","eligible_for_validated_direct_contrast":true,"reason":"direct displacement-to-child adult earnings estimate; transport still requires an applicability decision"},"grandchild":{"status":"structural_projection","eligible_for_validated_direct_contrast":false,"reason":"combines a direct child estimate with an intergenerational persistence assumption; not an identified displacement intervention effect"},"greatgrandchild":{"status":"source_withdrawn","eligible_for_validated_direct_contrast":false,"reason":"source withdrawn for grandchild_earnings->greatgrandchild_earnings: The source measures earnings for three generations and education for four. It does not estimate .55 causal gap transmission to a fourth earnings generation. Retaining a projection would require an explicit uncalibrated assumption, not a source-identified default."}}`

Exposure source: `{"source":"one-worker normalized reference input","method":"scale by the stored warehouse worker-equivalent exposure at read time"}`

Exact values: excess deaths over 20 years 26.4544357492 (range 10.3598950297 to 46.0816946235); child lifetime earnings lost $440,522,660.93 (range $114,421,470.37 to $743,739,557.42);

The displayed range is a parameter-support envelope, not a confidence interval.

Place reference: national reference.

Not included: exposure estimation error; baseline estimation error; unmodeled pathways.

Blocked model paths: local_service_jobs_lost: requires a documented net local loss of tradable jobs; worker displacement alone is not this exposure.

### Scenario assumptions, sensitivity and source records

Outcome statistics use the displayed exposure. Baselines, coefficients, annual family schedules and component records retain their source normalization.

```json
{
  "displayed_workers": 919.875,
  "source_normalization_workers": 1,
  "applicability": {
    "excess_deaths": {
      "status": "illustrative_reference_calculation",
      "eligible_for_public_headline": false,
      "target_population": null,
      "decision": null,
      "transport_assumptions": [
        "high-tenure male mass-layoff cohort, ages 45–54",
        "Pennsylvania early-1980s response transported to target place and calendar time",
        "fixed baseline age rate over follow-up; cohort aging is not modeled"
      ],
      "reason": "Target cohort applicability and transport have not been established for this outcome; display as an illustrative reference calculation."
    },
    "child_lifetime_earnings_lost_usd": {
      "status": "illustrative_reference_calculation",
      "eligible_for_public_headline": false,
      "target_population": null,
      "decision": null,
      "transport_assumptions": [
        "Canadian father-son firm-closure estimate transported to the target families",
        "US male synthetic career earnings convert a relative adult earnings effect to dollars",
        "lifetime dollars are undiscounted; this is not an annual loss"
      ],
      "reason": "Target cohort applicability and transport have not been established for this outcome; display as an illustrative reference calculation."
    }
  },
  "target_population": null,
  "projection_eligibility": {
    "child": {
      "status": "direct_estimate",
      "eligible_for_validated_direct_contrast": true,
      "reason": "direct displacement-to-child adult earnings estimate; transport still requires an applicability decision"
    },
    "grandchild": {
      "status": "structural_projection",
      "eligible_for_validated_direct_contrast": false,
      "reason": "combines a direct child estimate with an intergenerational persistence assumption; not an identified displacement intervention effect"
    },
    "greatgrandchild": {
      "status": "source_withdrawn",
      "eligible_for_validated_direct_contrast": false,
      "reason": "source withdrawn for grandchild_earnings->greatgrandchild_earnings: The source measures earnings for three generations and education for four. It does not estimate .55 causal gap transmission to a fourth earnings generation. Retaining a projection would require an explicit uncalibrated assumption, not a source-identified default."
    }
  },
  "child_applicability": {
    "source": "oreopoulos2008",
    "source_age_at_displacement": [
      10,
      14
    ],
    "source_child_sex": "Male",
    "source_parent_sex": "Male",
    "source_geography": "Canada",
    "source_event": "father firm closure 1980-1982",
    "target_child_profiles": null,
    "incompatible_children": [],
    "unknown_children": [],
    "source_income_quartile": null,
    "income_rank_definition": null,
    "eligible_for_reviewed_transport": false,
    "status": "unknown",
    "limitations": [
      "No response curve across child ages is identified by this narrow cohort.",
      "Income groups refer to father's average pre-displacement income in 1978-1979; target rank mapping requires a transport argument.",
      "A subgroup's nonsignificant coefficient is retained with its uncertainty, not replaced with zero."
    ]
  },
  "child_valuation": null,
  "assumptions": {
    "mortality_method": "odds_survival",
    "mortality_timing": "Source-offset profile: displacement, +1, +2–3, +4–5, and +6+; displacement is follow-up year 1, so offset +6 begins in follow-up year 7. Annual baseline rates use a constant-hazard rate-to-risk conversion; odds ratios modify annual risk, and survival compounds across phases. The selected baseline age rate is held fixed over the follow-up horizon.",
    "mortality_contract": {
      "method": "odds_survival",
      "timing": "source_profile",
      "baseline_conversion": "1-exp(-annual_rate)",
      "phases": [
        {
          "phase": "displacement",
          "start_offset": 0,
          "duration_years": 1,
          "first_follow_up_year": 1
        },
        {
          "phase": "offset_1",
          "start_offset": 1,
          "duration_years": 1,
          "first_follow_up_year": 2
        },
        {
          "phase": "offsets_2_3",
          "start_offset": 2,
          "duration_years": 2,
          "first_follow_up_year": 3
        },
        {
          "phase": "offsets_4_5",
          "start_offset": 4,
          "duration_years": 2,
          "first_follow_up_year": 5
        },
        {
          "phase": "offset_6_plus",
          "start_offset": 6,
          "duration_years": null,
          "first_follow_up_year": 7
        }
      ],
      "description": "Source-offset profile: displacement, +1, +2–3, +4–5, and +6+; displacement is follow-up year 1, so offset +6 begins in follow-up year 7. Annual baseline rates use a constant-hazard rate-to-risk conversion; odds ratios modify annual risk, and survival compounds across phases. The selected baseline age rate is held fixed over the follow-up horizon."
    },
    "place_application": "initial_only",
    "place_counterfactual": "national child-dollar result is the reference"
  },
  "exposure_provenance": {
    "source": "one-worker normalized reference input",
    "method": "scale by the stored warehouse worker-equivalent exposure at read time"
  },
  "place": null,
  "place_mix": [],
  "input_content_sha256": "a771d456f24b73ab4a27e51e83ec07640a0d93114d4ffc968aae925e700d843d",
  "engine_version": "0.4.1",
  "bundle_sha256": "d84162591c94d06c8148c4834ae705ff3f9a015c29955d95d26749834cd136ed",
  "exposure_input_sha256": "8b4c78f6529f0fbefd8fc3154c9e9b976065d910b4c6e9d55690e36d5c3cdeaa",
  "input_hash": null,
  "engine_sha256": "d84162591c94d06c8148c4834ae705ff3f9a015c29955d95d26749834cd136ed",
  "adapter_sha256": "5fe4b51a9cebfb247cfcd74c734a2b6cb0eae44fce1073917b01455525c6ae52",
  "outcomes": {
    "excess_deaths": {
      "point": 26.45443574921846,
      "low": 10.359895029720146,
      "high": 46.0816946235175,
      "unit": "deaths",
      "baseline": {
        "value": 0.004944,
        "annual_probability": 0.004931798548274205,
        "unit": "deaths_per_person_year",
        "citation": "cdc_wonder D76 (Underlying Cause of Death, 1999-2020), Male 45-54 years, pooled 2015-2019: 514314 deaths / 104024440 person-years = 494.4 per 100k; pulled 2026-09-06 via scraper.cli wonder-mortality into warehouse wonder_mortality",
        "population": "US prime-age men (45-54)",
        "notes": "Pre-pandemic window: excludes 2020 (COVID-distorted; 2020 crude rate 601.5/100k). Single-year 2019 = 490.0/100k. Ages 45-54 match the Sullivan & von Wachter prime-age counterfactual population",
        "sex": "Male",
        "age": "45-54 years",
        "years": "2015-2019",
        "cause": "All causes",
        "geography": "US"
      },
      "steps": [
        {
          "link": "earnings_shock->mortality_peak",
          "phase": "displacement",
          "point": 2.6698,
          "low": 2.1144,
          "high": 3.3711,
          "citation": "sullivan2009",
          "tier": "canonical",
          "population_scope": "US high-seniority displaced men born 1930-1959",
          "evidence_role": "conditional"
        },
        {
          "link": "earnings_shock->mortality_offset_1",
          "phase": "offset_1",
          "point": 1.9838,
          "low": 1.3697,
          "high": 2.8732,
          "citation": "sullivan2009",
          "tier": "canonical",
          "population_scope": "US high-seniority displaced men born 1930-1959",
          "evidence_role": "conditional"
        },
        {
          "link": "earnings_shock->mortality_offsets_2_3",
          "phase": "offsets_2_3",
          "point": 1.7315,
          "low": 1.3238,
          "high": 2.2649,
          "citation": "sullivan2009",
          "tier": "canonical",
          "population_scope": "US high-seniority displaced men born 1930-1959",
          "evidence_role": "conditional"
        },
        {
          "link": "earnings_shock->mortality_offsets_4_5",
          "phase": "offsets_4_5",
          "point": 1.2712,
          "low": 0.97,
          "high": 1.6661,
          "citation": "sullivan2009",
          "tier": "canonical",
          "population_scope": "US high-seniority displaced men born 1930-1959",
          "evidence_role": "conditional"
        },
        {
          "link": "earnings_shock->mortality_sustained",
          "phase": "offset_6_plus",
          "point": 1.1354,
          "low": 1.0335,
          "high": 1.2474,
          "citation": "sullivan2009",
          "tier": "canonical",
          "population_scope": "US high-seniority displaced men born 1930-1959",
          "evidence_role": "conditional"
        }
      ],
      "components": {
        "follow_up_years": 20,
        "method": "odds_survival",
        "timing": "source_profile"
      },
      "applicability": {
        "status": "illustrative_reference_calculation",
        "eligible_for_public_headline": false,
        "target_population": null,
        "decision": null,
        "transport_assumptions": [
          "high-tenure male mass-layoff cohort, ages 45–54",
          "Pennsylvania early-1980s response transported to target place and calendar time",
          "fixed baseline age rate over follow-up; cohort aging is not modeled"
        ],
        "reason": "Target cohort applicability and transport have not been established for this outcome; display as an illustrative reference calculation."
      },
      "interpretation": "Conditional modeled expected difference; parameter bands are support envelopes, not a confidence interval.",
      "persistence_sensitivity": {
        "available": true,
        "status": "declared_structural_sensitivity",
        "eligible_for_public_headline": false,
        "unit": "deaths",
        "variants": {
          "source_profile": {
            "point": 26.45443574921846,
            "low": 10.359895029720146,
            "high": 46.0816946235175,
            "evidence_status": "source_profile_with_transport_assumptions",
            "citations": [
              "sullivan2009"
            ]
          },
          "no_sustained_excess": {
            "point": 18.878918064880644,
            "low": 8.454447279643379,
            "high": 32.527953486287224,
            "evidence_status": "structural_assumption",
            "motivating_citations": [
              "eliasonstorrie2009"
            ],
            "assumption": "Retain source odds through offset +5; set offset +6 onward OR=1.",
            "first_changed_follow_up_year": 7,
            "fixed_late_odds_ratio": 1
          }
        },
        "source_minus_no_sustained_point": 7.57551768433782,
        "structural_point_range": {
          "low": 18.878918064880644,
          "high": 26.45443574921846,
          "interpretation": "Range of point estimates across these two assumptions; not a confidence interval or a bound on the true effect."
        },
        "shared_inputs": [
          "exposure",
          "resolved mortality baseline",
          "follow-up horizon",
          "source odds through offset +5"
        ],
        "limitations": [
          "No probabilities or model-average weights are assigned to the structures.",
          "A nonsignificant long-run estimate does not establish an exactly zero effect.",
          "The Swedish study differs in population, design, effect scale and follow-up; this hybrid does not reproduce its estimates or substitute its hazard ratios for odds ratios.",
          "The cutoff follows the source profile's offset +6 phase, not the Swedish study's windows; persistence beyond its 12-year follow-up is an assumption in either direction.",
          "Baseline aging and target-population transport remain unresolved in both structures."
        ]
      }
    },
    "child_lifetime_earnings_lost_usd": {
      "point": 440522660.93220013,
      "low": 114421470.37200011,
      "high": 743739557.4180001,
      "steps": [
        {
          "link": "displacement->child_earnings",
          "kind": "direct",
          "citation": "oreopoulos2008",
          "tier": "EXACT",
          "param_point": 0.9076,
          "param_low": 0.844,
          "param_high": 0.976,
          "value_point": 0.9076,
          "value_low": 0.844,
          "value_high": 0.976,
          "causal_role": "direct_displacement_estimate",
          "population_scope": "Canada 39k father-son pairs firm closures",
          "evidence_role": "conditional"
        }
      ],
      "unit": "usd_2024",
      "baseline": {
        "value": 2591418,
        "unit": "usd_2024",
        "citation": "SSA Annual Statistical Supplement 2025, Table 4.B6 (CWHS/Master Earnings File, 1 percent sample): male median earnings by age, 2023 (preliminary) — synthetic career ages 20-64 = 5x(24218+42561+52485+60423+64962+67506+68160+64854)+2x60666+3x56666 = 2517175 usd_2023; CPI-U annual averages 304.702->313.689 (BLS series CUUR0000SA0, pulled 2026-09-06) -> 2591418 usd_2024; warehouse ssa_median_earnings (pulled via ssa-earnings-download)",
        "population": "US male median lifetime earnings",
        "notes": "Derivation declared: the cross-sectional age profile summed over a 45-year working life (ages 20-64) is a synthetic cohort — the sum of age-band medians approximates rather than equals the median of individual lifetime sums; median-of-workers semantics excludes non-working years; 2023 medians are preliminary (SSA replaces them with final data in a later edition)"
      },
      "applicability": {
        "status": "illustrative_reference_calculation",
        "eligible_for_public_headline": false,
        "target_population": null,
        "decision": null,
        "transport_assumptions": [
          "Canadian father-son firm-closure estimate transported to the target families",
          "US male synthetic career earnings convert a relative adult earnings effect to dollars",
          "lifetime dollars are undiscounted; this is not an annual loss"
        ],
        "reason": "Target cohort applicability and transport have not been established for this outcome; display as an illustrative reference calculation."
      },
      "interpretation": "Conditional modeled expected difference; parameter bands are support envelopes, not a confidence interval."
    }
  }
}
```

- Excess deaths over 20 years: sullivan2009 (earnings_shock->mortality_peak; canonical) Study population: US high-seniority displaced men born 1930-1959.
- Excess deaths over 20 years: sullivan2009 (earnings_shock->mortality_offset_1; canonical) Study population: US high-seniority displaced men born 1930-1959.
- Excess deaths over 20 years: sullivan2009 (earnings_shock->mortality_offsets_2_3; canonical) Study population: US high-seniority displaced men born 1930-1959.
- Excess deaths over 20 years: sullivan2009 (earnings_shock->mortality_offsets_4_5; canonical) Study population: US high-seniority displaced men born 1930-1959.
- Excess deaths over 20 years: sullivan2009 (earnings_shock->mortality_sustained; canonical) Study population: US high-seniority displaced men born 1930-1959.
- Child lifetime earnings lost: oreopoulos2008 (displacement->child_earnings; EXACT) Study population: Canada 39k father-son pairs firm closures.

Parameter set v1.54 · model v1.54+engine0.4.1+d84162591c94d06c8148c4834ae705ff3f9a015c29955d95d26749834cd136ed+national-reference1

## Community well-being (ZIP 12208)

CDC PLACES model-based small-area estimates (BRFSS survey year 2023); overdose mortality from NCHS. Values are local estimates, not survey counts. The gap column compares against the population-weighted average of all reporting areas for the same data year.

| Indicator | Data year | Local value | Gap vs benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Food insecurity | 2023 | 14.6% | 2.5 points below All ZIPs |
| Adults receiving SNAP | 2023 | 13.0% | 1.3 points below All ZIPs |
| Frequent mental distress | 2023 | 16.2% | 0.6 points below All ZIPs |
| Adult smoking | 2023 | 10.1% | 3.1 points below All ZIPs |

## More

- Full page (charts, tables, interactive): https://www.xh1b.org/zip/12208
- JSON API: https://www.xh1b.org/api/zip-lcas?zip=12208
- JSON API: https://www.xh1b.org/api/zip-employers?zip=12208
- JSON API: https://www.xh1b.org/api/zip-soc?zip=12208


## References

<a id="reference-data-lca-data-bls-data-dataset-warn-dataset-federal_contracts-calculation-method-indicators-method-displacement-method-downstream-method-lca-data"></a>

1. Dataset documentation · DOL OFLC. [LCA public disclosure record layout (FY2026 Q3)](https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/ETA/oflc/pdfs/FY26Q3/LCA_Record_Layout_FY2026_Q3.pdf). Pages 1–4: application, DOL outcome and dates, requested positions, employer, representatives, worksites and pay units. This layout covers determinations issued October 1, 2025 through June 30, 2026. It documents employer-provided application fields and DOL decisions, not USCIS decisions, payroll verification, legal bills or worker-linked moves. Older layouts can differ. Checked 2026-10-17.

<a id="reference-data-lca-data-bls-data-dataset-warn-dataset-federal_contracts-calculation-method-indicators-method-displacement-method-downstream-method-bls-data"></a>

2. Dataset documentation · BLS. [OEWS technical notes (May 2025)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/2025/may/oes_tec.htm). Scope of the survey; occupational coding; concepts and estimation methodology. Documents occupation and geographic wage estimates, not an individual worker’s pay. Use the estimate year and geography stated by the site; older releases can differ. Checked 2026-10-17.

<a id="reference-data-lca-data-bls-data-dataset-warn-dataset-federal_contracts-calculation-method-indicators-method-displacement-method-downstream-method-dataset-warn"></a>
<a id="reference-data-lca-data-bls-data-dataset-warn-dataset-federal_contracts-calculation-method-indicators-method-displacement-method-downstream-method-calculation-method"></a>
<a id="reference-data-lca-data-bls-data-dataset-warn-dataset-federal_contracts-calculation-method-indicators-method-displacement-method-downstream-method-indicators-method"></a>

3. XH1B method or registry · XH1B. [WARN Notices (mass layoffs): source registry; Calculation and Matching Methods; Reading Public Records and Derived Indicators](https://www.xh1b.org/data-sources). Source registry entry: warn; Filing units, annualization, weighting, wage comparisons, and inference limits; Reading records: units, source coverage, wage gaps, entity links, and inference limits. XH1B dataset description: One row per source_notice_id. The definition of a mass layoff and the layoff threshold vary by state. The threshold is typically 50 or more employees.; These are the site's review methods, not validated predictions of wrongdoing. Inspect underlying records and alternative explanations.

<a id="reference-data-lca-data-bls-data-dataset-warn-dataset-federal_contracts-calculation-method-indicators-method-displacement-method-downstream-method-dataset-federal_contracts"></a>

4. Dataset documentation · USAspending / U.S. Treasury. [Federal Spending Guide: contract transactions](https://www.usaspending.gov/data/Federal-Spending-Guide.pdf#page=9). Pages 3, 5, 9 and 17: transactions, amount fields and recipient identifiers. Contract downloads contain prime award transactions. XH1B’s use of recipient identifiers for employer links is its own processing step. Checked 2026-10-18.

<a id="reference-data-lca-data-bls-data-dataset-warn-dataset-federal_contracts-calculation-method-indicators-method-displacement-method-downstream-method-displacement-method"></a>

5. XH1B method or registry · XH1B. [Displacement Model and Assumptions](https://www.xh1b.org/displacement). Eligibility, requested-position weighting, scopes, WARN matching, and counting limits. Model outputs are estimates. A matched layoff notice does not prove that an H-1B worker replaced a laid-off worker.

<a id="reference-data-lca-data-bls-data-dataset-warn-dataset-federal_contracts-calculation-method-indicators-method-displacement-method-downstream-method-downstream-method"></a>

6. XH1B method or registry · XH1B. [Downstream Research and Methods](https://www.xh1b.org/downstream#downstream-methods). Study populations, parameter bounds, baselines, and expected outcomes; linked model card.