# ZIP 12946: H-1B profile

> ZIP profile: https://www.xh1b.org/zip/12946 · [county](https://www.xh1b.org/county/36031)

Employers in 12946 (NY) logged 9 certified H-1B applications requesting 9 workers across 8 companies. The median offered wage is $74,100/yr. The largest filers are Northwood School, KPH Healthcare SERVICES, Inc. and Comtrix Solutions, Inc.. The displacement model assigns 135 worker-equivalent exposures to these filings. Separately, 124 layoffs appear in matched WARN notices.

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| H-1B filings | 9 |
| Workers requested | 9 |
| US workers displaced (modeled) | 135 |
| Distinct employers | 8 |
| H-1B filings with offered wage data | 9 |
| Filings below prevailing wage (share with offered wage data) | 0% |
| Wage gap vs BLS | -19% |

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Average offered wage | $82K |
| Average prevailing wage | $72K |
| Average BLS market wage | $102K |

Headline filing and employer counts use certified H-1B records. The below-prevailing share uses filings with offered wage data as its denominator. Offered, prevailing and BLS averages use independently available values; their populations can differ. The BLS reference averages national occupation medians linked to certified filings, using each occupation's latest available year. It is not a ZIP-wide market median. The employer list includes all LCA outcomes and visa classes; quality-flagged rows are excluded.

## Top employers (of 11)

| Employer | Filings | Workers | Avg wage |
|---|---|---|---|
| [Northwood School](https://www.xh1b.org/org/northwood-school-15f1dc6b6a) | 2 | 2 | $40K |
| [Eastwind Hotel Management LLC.](https://www.xh1b.org/org/eastwind-hotel-management-llc-299ed62418) | 1 | 1 | $80K |
| [North Country School, Inc.](https://www.xh1b.org/org/north-country-school-inc-da4b0d624c) | 1 | 1 | $53K |
| [Gear-Am Properties INC](https://www.xh1b.org/org/gear-am-properties-inc-5be0f6c64a) | 1 | 1 | $37K |
| [West Technology Group, LLC](https://www.xh1b.org/org/west-technology-group-llc-599bc61fee) | 1 | 1 | $200K |
| [Hudson Headwaters Health Network](https://www.xh1b.org/org/hudson-headwaters-health-network-a00fade37d) | 1 | 1 | $193K |
| [Elderwood of Uihlein AT Lake Placid](https://www.xh1b.org/org/elderwood-of-uihlein-at-lake-placid-f9858c3a00) | 1 | 1 | $74K |
| [KPH Healthcare SERVICES, Inc.](https://www.xh1b.org/org/kph-healthcare-services-inc-19cf678a40) | 1 | 1 | $114K |

## SOC breakdown (of 7)

| SOC | Title | Filings | Workers | Avg wage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25-2031 | Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education | 2 | 2 | $40K |
| 29-1123 | Physical Therapists | 2 | 2 | $68K |
| 15-2031 | Operations Research Analysts | 1 | 1 | $80K |
| 19-1011 | Animal Scientists | 1 | 1 | $80K |
| 21-1012 | Educational, Guidance, and Career Counselors and Advisors | 1 | 1 | $53K |
| 29-1051 | Pharmacists | 1 | 1 | $114K |
| 29-1062 | Family and General Practitioners | 1 | 1 | $193K |

## Recent LCA filings (latest 10 of 12)

| Case number | Employer | Job title | Wage | Decision | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| [I-201-25202-188570](https://www.xh1b.org/lca/I-201-25202-188570) | [Gear-Am Properties INC](https://www.xh1b.org/org/gear-am-properties-inc-5be0f6c64a) | Maintenance Coordinator | $37K | 2025-07-28 | Certified |
| [I-200-25098-844034](https://www.xh1b.org/lca/I-200-25098-844034) | [Northwood School](https://www.xh1b.org/org/northwood-school-15f1dc6b6a) | English Teacher | $45K | 2025-04-15 | Certified |
| [I-203-24317-468454](https://www.xh1b.org/lca/I-203-24317-468454) | [West Technology Group, LLC](https://www.xh1b.org/org/west-technology-group-llc-599bc61fee) | Director, Sales | $200K | 2024-11-19 | Certified |
| [I-200-24156-068405](https://www.xh1b.org/lca/I-200-24156-068405) | [North Country School, Inc.](https://www.xh1b.org/org/north-country-school-inc-da4b0d624c) | School Counselor | $53K | 2024-06-11 | Certified |
| [I-200-22220-402714](https://www.xh1b.org/lca/I-200-22220-402714) | [EASTWIND HOTEL MANAGEMENT LLC.](https://www.xh1b.org/org/eastwind-hotel-management-llc-299ed62418) | OPERATIONS ANALYST | $80K | 2022-08-15 | Certified |
| [I-200-22042-896459](https://www.xh1b.org/lca/I-200-22042-896459) | [Northwood School](https://www.xh1b.org/org/northwood-school-15f1dc6b6a) | English Teacher | $36K | 2022-02-18 | Certified |
| [I-200-19073-828793](https://www.xh1b.org/lca/I-200-19073-828793) | [COMTRIX SOLUTIONS, INC.](https://www.xh1b.org/org/comtrix-solutions-inc-ea7dcc9394) | PHYSICAL THERAPIST | $62K | 2019-03-21 | CERTIFIED |
| [I-203-18128-799399](https://www.xh1b.org/lca/I-203-18128-799399) | [USA BOBSLED AND SKELETON FEDERATION](https://www.xh1b.org/org/usa-bobsled-and-skeleton-federation-053790a8d9) | USABS START COACH | $50K | 2018-05-16 | CERTIFIED |
| [I-200-18093-303093](https://www.xh1b.org/lca/I-200-18093-303093) | [REMARKABLE FARMS LLC](https://www.xh1b.org/org/remarkable-farms-llc-8e6b917cc9) | ANIMAL NUTRITIONIST MANAGER | $80K | 2018-04-09 | CERTIFIED |
| [I-200-18078-577083](https://www.xh1b.org/lca/I-200-18078-577083) | [KPH HEALTHCARE SERVICES, INC.](https://www.xh1b.org/org/kph-healthcare-services-inc-19cf678a40) | PHARMACIST | $114K | 2018-03-26 | CERTIFIED |

## WARN mass-layoff notices

| Employer | Laid off | City | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| [Spire Hospitality (at High Peaks Resort)](https://www.xh1b.org/org/spire-hospitality-at-high-peaks-resort-b326709fb6) | 90 | - | 2020-03-20 |
| [HH Brown Shoe Co., Inc. dba Super Shoes (2 Locations North Country)](https://www.xh1b.org/org/hh-brown-shoe-co-inc-dba-super-shoes-2-l-22ff31f067) | 25 | - | 2020-03-20 |
| [Chesapeake Hospitality (Crowne Plaza Lake Placid)](https://www.xh1b.org/org/chesapeake-hospitality-crowne-plaza-lake-77927fe4eb) | - | - | 2020-03-18 |
| [Uihlein Living Center](https://www.xh1b.org/org/uihlein-living-center-e785a691db) | 9 | - | 2013-06-03 |

_ZIP-level displacement uses the LCA formula only (no WARN component)._

## Modeled consequence estimates

**Conditional impacts associated with modeled displacement**

These are conditional population estimates scaled from ZIP 12946's current modeled displacement count. They are not observed outcomes, a prediction about any person, or evidence that this entity caused displacement.

[Explore ZIP 12946’s scenario: Earnings · children · health · adjust the worker count](https://www.xh1b.org/downstream?workers=135.023&entity=ZIP%2012946#downstream-explorer)

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Exposure method version | Exposure method v1.2 (stored with this aggregate) · benchmarked to the latest BLS survey. |
| Consequence parameters v1.54; build | `v1.54+engine0.4.1+d84162591c94d06c8148c4834ae705ff3f9a015c29955d95d26749834cd136ed+national-reference1` |

| Outcome | Applicability | Estimate | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excess deaths over 20 years | Illustrative reference calculation · population applicability is not established | 3.88308985261 | 1.52066759788 to 6.76405887012 |
| Child lifetime earnings lost | Illustrative reference calculation · population applicability is not established | $64,661,710.83 | $16,795,249.57 to $109,169,122.18 |

20-year reference scenario: high-seniority male displacement effect. This is not an expected count for an unknown population.

Source-profile mortality point (deaths): 3.88308985261

No sustained excess from year 7 (deaths): 2.77112450482

Declared structural comparison; not a confidence interval or a model probability.

Baseline population: US prime-age men (45-54).

Canadian father–son firm-closure effect, applied to a US male lifetime-earnings baseline in 2024 dollars. The reference result uses 2 children per worker.

Baseline population: US male median lifetime earnings.

The mortality effect comes from a high-seniority male study cohort. Treat the count as a reference scenario unless the population matches. A mixed population needs a reviewed transport rule.

The range is the engine's parameter-support envelope: it varies declared parameters only and adds none of the exposure input's uncertainty.

### The math, limits, and citations

Illustrative reference calculation scaled by the supplied worker-equivalent exposure. Two children per worker; 20-year mortality follow-up. This does not establish that an entity caused these outcomes.

Input SHA-256: `a771d456f24b73ab4a27e51e83ec07640a0d93114d4ffc968aae925e700d843d`

Excess deaths over 20 years: `{"status":"illustrative_reference_calculation","eligible_for_public_headline":false,"target_population":null,"decision":null,"transport_assumptions":["high-tenure male mass-layoff cohort, ages 45–54","Pennsylvania early-1980s response transported to target place and calendar time","fixed baseline age rate over follow-up; cohort aging is not modeled"],"reason":"Target cohort applicability and transport have not been established for this outcome; display as an illustrative reference calculation."}`
Child lifetime earnings lost: `{"status":"illustrative_reference_calculation","eligible_for_public_headline":false,"target_population":null,"decision":null,"transport_assumptions":["Canadian father-son firm-closure estimate transported to the target families","US male synthetic career earnings convert a relative adult earnings effect to dollars","lifetime dollars are undiscounted; this is not an annual loss"],"reason":"Target cohort applicability and transport have not been established for this outcome; display as an illustrative reference calculation."}`

Projection eligibility: `{"child":{"status":"direct_estimate","eligible_for_validated_direct_contrast":true,"reason":"direct displacement-to-child adult earnings estimate; transport still requires an applicability decision"},"grandchild":{"status":"structural_projection","eligible_for_validated_direct_contrast":false,"reason":"combines a direct child estimate with an intergenerational persistence assumption; not an identified displacement intervention effect"},"greatgrandchild":{"status":"source_withdrawn","eligible_for_validated_direct_contrast":false,"reason":"source withdrawn for grandchild_earnings->greatgrandchild_earnings: The source measures earnings for three generations and education for four. It does not estimate .55 causal gap transmission to a fourth earnings generation. Retaining a projection would require an explicit uncalibrated assumption, not a source-identified default."}}`

Exposure source: `{"source":"one-worker normalized reference input","method":"scale by the stored warehouse worker-equivalent exposure at read time"}`

Exact values: excess deaths over 20 years 3.88308985261 (range 1.52066759788 to 6.76405887012); child lifetime earnings lost $64,661,710.83 (range $16,795,249.57 to $109,169,122.18);

The displayed range is a parameter-support envelope, not a confidence interval.

Place reference: national reference.

Not included: exposure estimation error; baseline estimation error; unmodeled pathways.

Blocked model paths: local_service_jobs_lost: requires a documented net local loss of tradable jobs; worker displacement alone is not this exposure.

### Scenario assumptions, sensitivity and source records

Outcome statistics use the displayed exposure. Baselines, coefficients, annual family schedules and component records retain their source normalization.

```json
{
  "displayed_workers": 135.023,
  "source_normalization_workers": 1,
  "applicability": {
    "excess_deaths": {
      "status": "illustrative_reference_calculation",
      "eligible_for_public_headline": false,
      "target_population": null,
      "decision": null,
      "transport_assumptions": [
        "high-tenure male mass-layoff cohort, ages 45–54",
        "Pennsylvania early-1980s response transported to target place and calendar time",
        "fixed baseline age rate over follow-up; cohort aging is not modeled"
      ],
      "reason": "Target cohort applicability and transport have not been established for this outcome; display as an illustrative reference calculation."
    },
    "child_lifetime_earnings_lost_usd": {
      "status": "illustrative_reference_calculation",
      "eligible_for_public_headline": false,
      "target_population": null,
      "decision": null,
      "transport_assumptions": [
        "Canadian father-son firm-closure estimate transported to the target families",
        "US male synthetic career earnings convert a relative adult earnings effect to dollars",
        "lifetime dollars are undiscounted; this is not an annual loss"
      ],
      "reason": "Target cohort applicability and transport have not been established for this outcome; display as an illustrative reference calculation."
    }
  },
  "target_population": null,
  "projection_eligibility": {
    "child": {
      "status": "direct_estimate",
      "eligible_for_validated_direct_contrast": true,
      "reason": "direct displacement-to-child adult earnings estimate; transport still requires an applicability decision"
    },
    "grandchild": {
      "status": "structural_projection",
      "eligible_for_validated_direct_contrast": false,
      "reason": "combines a direct child estimate with an intergenerational persistence assumption; not an identified displacement intervention effect"
    },
    "greatgrandchild": {
      "status": "source_withdrawn",
      "eligible_for_validated_direct_contrast": false,
      "reason": "source withdrawn for grandchild_earnings->greatgrandchild_earnings: The source measures earnings for three generations and education for four. It does not estimate .55 causal gap transmission to a fourth earnings generation. Retaining a projection would require an explicit uncalibrated assumption, not a source-identified default."
    }
  },
  "child_applicability": {
    "source": "oreopoulos2008",
    "source_age_at_displacement": [
      10,
      14
    ],
    "source_child_sex": "Male",
    "source_parent_sex": "Male",
    "source_geography": "Canada",
    "source_event": "father firm closure 1980-1982",
    "target_child_profiles": null,
    "incompatible_children": [],
    "unknown_children": [],
    "source_income_quartile": null,
    "income_rank_definition": null,
    "eligible_for_reviewed_transport": false,
    "status": "unknown",
    "limitations": [
      "No response curve across child ages is identified by this narrow cohort.",
      "Income groups refer to father's average pre-displacement income in 1978-1979; target rank mapping requires a transport argument.",
      "A subgroup's nonsignificant coefficient is retained with its uncertainty, not replaced with zero."
    ]
  },
  "child_valuation": null,
  "assumptions": {
    "mortality_method": "odds_survival",
    "mortality_timing": "Source-offset profile: displacement, +1, +2–3, +4–5, and +6+; displacement is follow-up year 1, so offset +6 begins in follow-up year 7. Annual baseline rates use a constant-hazard rate-to-risk conversion; odds ratios modify annual risk, and survival compounds across phases. The selected baseline age rate is held fixed over the follow-up horizon.",
    "mortality_contract": {
      "method": "odds_survival",
      "timing": "source_profile",
      "baseline_conversion": "1-exp(-annual_rate)",
      "phases": [
        {
          "phase": "displacement",
          "start_offset": 0,
          "duration_years": 1,
          "first_follow_up_year": 1
        },
        {
          "phase": "offset_1",
          "start_offset": 1,
          "duration_years": 1,
          "first_follow_up_year": 2
        },
        {
          "phase": "offsets_2_3",
          "start_offset": 2,
          "duration_years": 2,
          "first_follow_up_year": 3
        },
        {
          "phase": "offsets_4_5",
          "start_offset": 4,
          "duration_years": 2,
          "first_follow_up_year": 5
        },
        {
          "phase": "offset_6_plus",
          "start_offset": 6,
          "duration_years": null,
          "first_follow_up_year": 7
        }
      ],
      "description": "Source-offset profile: displacement, +1, +2–3, +4–5, and +6+; displacement is follow-up year 1, so offset +6 begins in follow-up year 7. Annual baseline rates use a constant-hazard rate-to-risk conversion; odds ratios modify annual risk, and survival compounds across phases. The selected baseline age rate is held fixed over the follow-up horizon."
    },
    "place_application": "initial_only",
    "place_counterfactual": "national child-dollar result is the reference"
  },
  "exposure_provenance": {
    "source": "one-worker normalized reference input",
    "method": "scale by the stored warehouse worker-equivalent exposure at read time"
  },
  "place": null,
  "place_mix": [],
  "input_content_sha256": "a771d456f24b73ab4a27e51e83ec07640a0d93114d4ffc968aae925e700d843d",
  "engine_version": "0.4.1",
  "bundle_sha256": "d84162591c94d06c8148c4834ae705ff3f9a015c29955d95d26749834cd136ed",
  "exposure_input_sha256": "8b4c78f6529f0fbefd8fc3154c9e9b976065d910b4c6e9d55690e36d5c3cdeaa",
  "input_hash": null,
  "engine_sha256": "d84162591c94d06c8148c4834ae705ff3f9a015c29955d95d26749834cd136ed",
  "adapter_sha256": "5fe4b51a9cebfb247cfcd74c734a2b6cb0eae44fce1073917b01455525c6ae52",
  "outcomes": {
    "excess_deaths": {
      "point": 3.8830898526068482,
      "low": 1.5206675978778672,
      "high": 6.7640588701195306,
      "unit": "deaths",
      "baseline": {
        "value": 0.004944,
        "annual_probability": 0.004931798548274205,
        "unit": "deaths_per_person_year",
        "citation": "cdc_wonder D76 (Underlying Cause of Death, 1999-2020), Male 45-54 years, pooled 2015-2019: 514314 deaths / 104024440 person-years = 494.4 per 100k; pulled 2026-09-06 via scraper.cli wonder-mortality into warehouse wonder_mortality",
        "population": "US prime-age men (45-54)",
        "notes": "Pre-pandemic window: excludes 2020 (COVID-distorted; 2020 crude rate 601.5/100k). Single-year 2019 = 490.0/100k. Ages 45-54 match the Sullivan & von Wachter prime-age counterfactual population",
        "sex": "Male",
        "age": "45-54 years",
        "years": "2015-2019",
        "cause": "All causes",
        "geography": "US"
      },
      "steps": [
        {
          "link": "earnings_shock->mortality_peak",
          "phase": "displacement",
          "point": 2.6698,
          "low": 2.1144,
          "high": 3.3711,
          "citation": "sullivan2009",
          "tier": "canonical",
          "population_scope": "US high-seniority displaced men born 1930-1959",
          "evidence_role": "conditional"
        },
        {
          "link": "earnings_shock->mortality_offset_1",
          "phase": "offset_1",
          "point": 1.9838,
          "low": 1.3697,
          "high": 2.8732,
          "citation": "sullivan2009",
          "tier": "canonical",
          "population_scope": "US high-seniority displaced men born 1930-1959",
          "evidence_role": "conditional"
        },
        {
          "link": "earnings_shock->mortality_offsets_2_3",
          "phase": "offsets_2_3",
          "point": 1.7315,
          "low": 1.3238,
          "high": 2.2649,
          "citation": "sullivan2009",
          "tier": "canonical",
          "population_scope": "US high-seniority displaced men born 1930-1959",
          "evidence_role": "conditional"
        },
        {
          "link": "earnings_shock->mortality_offsets_4_5",
          "phase": "offsets_4_5",
          "point": 1.2712,
          "low": 0.97,
          "high": 1.6661,
          "citation": "sullivan2009",
          "tier": "canonical",
          "population_scope": "US high-seniority displaced men born 1930-1959",
          "evidence_role": "conditional"
        },
        {
          "link": "earnings_shock->mortality_sustained",
          "phase": "offset_6_plus",
          "point": 1.1354,
          "low": 1.0335,
          "high": 1.2474,
          "citation": "sullivan2009",
          "tier": "canonical",
          "population_scope": "US high-seniority displaced men born 1930-1959",
          "evidence_role": "conditional"
        }
      ],
      "components": {
        "follow_up_years": 20,
        "method": "odds_survival",
        "timing": "source_profile"
      },
      "applicability": {
        "status": "illustrative_reference_calculation",
        "eligible_for_public_headline": false,
        "target_population": null,
        "decision": null,
        "transport_assumptions": [
          "high-tenure male mass-layoff cohort, ages 45–54",
          "Pennsylvania early-1980s response transported to target place and calendar time",
          "fixed baseline age rate over follow-up; cohort aging is not modeled"
        ],
        "reason": "Target cohort applicability and transport have not been established for this outcome; display as an illustrative reference calculation."
      },
      "interpretation": "Conditional modeled expected difference; parameter bands are support envelopes, not a confidence interval.",
      "persistence_sensitivity": {
        "available": true,
        "status": "declared_structural_sensitivity",
        "eligible_for_public_headline": false,
        "unit": "deaths",
        "variants": {
          "source_profile": {
            "point": 3.8830898526068482,
            "low": 1.5206675978778672,
            "high": 6.7640588701195306,
            "evidence_status": "source_profile_with_transport_assumptions",
            "citations": [
              "sullivan2009"
            ]
          },
          "no_sustained_excess": {
            "point": 2.77112450482335,
            "low": 1.2409782144740187,
            "high": 4.774585529097932,
            "evidence_status": "structural_assumption",
            "motivating_citations": [
              "eliasonstorrie2009"
            ],
            "assumption": "Retain source odds through offset +5; set offset +6 onward OR=1.",
            "first_changed_follow_up_year": 7,
            "fixed_late_odds_ratio": 1
          }
        },
        "source_minus_no_sustained_point": 1.111965347783498,
        "structural_point_range": {
          "low": 2.77112450482335,
          "high": 3.8830898526068482,
          "interpretation": "Range of point estimates across these two assumptions; not a confidence interval or a bound on the true effect."
        },
        "shared_inputs": [
          "exposure",
          "resolved mortality baseline",
          "follow-up horizon",
          "source odds through offset +5"
        ],
        "limitations": [
          "No probabilities or model-average weights are assigned to the structures.",
          "A nonsignificant long-run estimate does not establish an exactly zero effect.",
          "The Swedish study differs in population, design, effect scale and follow-up; this hybrid does not reproduce its estimates or substitute its hazard ratios for odds ratios.",
          "The cutoff follows the source profile's offset +6 phase, not the Swedish study's windows; persistence beyond its 12-year follow-up is an assumption in either direction.",
          "Baseline aging and target-population transport remain unresolved in both structures."
        ]
      }
    },
    "child_lifetime_earnings_lost_usd": {
      "point": 64661710.82706722,
      "low": 16795249.565472014,
      "high": 109169122.17556801,
      "steps": [
        {
          "link": "displacement->child_earnings",
          "kind": "direct",
          "citation": "oreopoulos2008",
          "tier": "EXACT",
          "param_point": 0.9076,
          "param_low": 0.844,
          "param_high": 0.976,
          "value_point": 0.9076,
          "value_low": 0.844,
          "value_high": 0.976,
          "causal_role": "direct_displacement_estimate",
          "population_scope": "Canada 39k father-son pairs firm closures",
          "evidence_role": "conditional"
        }
      ],
      "unit": "usd_2024",
      "baseline": {
        "value": 2591418,
        "unit": "usd_2024",
        "citation": "SSA Annual Statistical Supplement 2025, Table 4.B6 (CWHS/Master Earnings File, 1 percent sample): male median earnings by age, 2023 (preliminary) — synthetic career ages 20-64 = 5x(24218+42561+52485+60423+64962+67506+68160+64854)+2x60666+3x56666 = 2517175 usd_2023; CPI-U annual averages 304.702->313.689 (BLS series CUUR0000SA0, pulled 2026-09-06) -> 2591418 usd_2024; warehouse ssa_median_earnings (pulled via ssa-earnings-download)",
        "population": "US male median lifetime earnings",
        "notes": "Derivation declared: the cross-sectional age profile summed over a 45-year working life (ages 20-64) is a synthetic cohort — the sum of age-band medians approximates rather than equals the median of individual lifetime sums; median-of-workers semantics excludes non-working years; 2023 medians are preliminary (SSA replaces them with final data in a later edition)"
      },
      "applicability": {
        "status": "illustrative_reference_calculation",
        "eligible_for_public_headline": false,
        "target_population": null,
        "decision": null,
        "transport_assumptions": [
          "Canadian father-son firm-closure estimate transported to the target families",
          "US male synthetic career earnings convert a relative adult earnings effect to dollars",
          "lifetime dollars are undiscounted; this is not an annual loss"
        ],
        "reason": "Target cohort applicability and transport have not been established for this outcome; display as an illustrative reference calculation."
      },
      "interpretation": "Conditional modeled expected difference; parameter bands are support envelopes, not a confidence interval."
    }
  }
}
```

- Excess deaths over 20 years: sullivan2009 (earnings_shock->mortality_peak; canonical) Study population: US high-seniority displaced men born 1930-1959.
- Excess deaths over 20 years: sullivan2009 (earnings_shock->mortality_offset_1; canonical) Study population: US high-seniority displaced men born 1930-1959.
- Excess deaths over 20 years: sullivan2009 (earnings_shock->mortality_offsets_2_3; canonical) Study population: US high-seniority displaced men born 1930-1959.
- Excess deaths over 20 years: sullivan2009 (earnings_shock->mortality_offsets_4_5; canonical) Study population: US high-seniority displaced men born 1930-1959.
- Excess deaths over 20 years: sullivan2009 (earnings_shock->mortality_sustained; canonical) Study population: US high-seniority displaced men born 1930-1959.
- Child lifetime earnings lost: oreopoulos2008 (displacement->child_earnings; EXACT) Study population: Canada 39k father-son pairs firm closures.

Parameter set v1.54 · model v1.54+engine0.4.1+d84162591c94d06c8148c4834ae705ff3f9a015c29955d95d26749834cd136ed+national-reference1

## Community well-being (ZIP 12946)

CDC PLACES model-based small-area estimates (BRFSS survey year 2023); overdose mortality from NCHS. Values are local estimates, not survey counts. The gap column compares against the population-weighted average of all reporting areas for the same data year.

| Indicator | Data year | Local value | Gap vs benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Food insecurity | 2023 | 12.0% | 5.1 points below All ZIPs |
| Adults receiving SNAP | 2023 | 11.1% | 3.2 points below All ZIPs |
| Frequent mental distress | 2023 | 15.7% | 1.1 points below All ZIPs |
| Adult smoking | 2023 | 13.0% | 0.2 points below All ZIPs |

## More

- Full page (charts, tables, interactive): https://www.xh1b.org/zip/12946
- JSON API: https://www.xh1b.org/api/zip-lcas?zip=12946
- JSON API: https://www.xh1b.org/api/zip-employers?zip=12946
- JSON API: https://www.xh1b.org/api/zip-soc?zip=12946


## References

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1. Dataset documentation · DOL OFLC. [LCA public disclosure record layout (FY2026 Q3)](https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/ETA/oflc/pdfs/FY26Q3/LCA_Record_Layout_FY2026_Q3.pdf). Pages 1–4: application, DOL outcome and dates, requested positions, employer, representatives, worksites and pay units. This layout covers determinations issued October 1, 2025 through June 30, 2026. It documents employer-provided application fields and DOL decisions, not USCIS decisions, payroll verification, legal bills or worker-linked moves. Older layouts can differ. Checked 2026-10-17.

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2. Dataset documentation · BLS. [OEWS technical notes (May 2025)](https://www.bls.gov/oes/2025/may/oes_tec.htm). Scope of the survey; occupational coding; concepts and estimation methodology. Documents occupation and geographic wage estimates, not an individual worker’s pay. Use the estimate year and geography stated by the site; older releases can differ. Checked 2026-10-17.

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3. XH1B method or registry · XH1B. [WARN Notices (mass layoffs): source registry; Calculation and Matching Methods; Reading Public Records and Derived Indicators](https://www.xh1b.org/data-sources). Source registry entry: warn; Filing units, annualization, weighting, wage comparisons, and inference limits; Reading records: units, source coverage, wage gaps, entity links, and inference limits. XH1B dataset description: One row per source_notice_id. The definition of a mass layoff and the layoff threshold vary by state. The threshold is typically 50 or more employees.; These are the site's review methods, not validated predictions of wrongdoing. Inspect underlying records and alternative explanations.

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4. Dataset documentation · USAspending / U.S. Treasury. [Federal Spending Guide: contract transactions](https://www.usaspending.gov/data/Federal-Spending-Guide.pdf#page=9). Pages 3, 5, 9 and 17: transactions, amount fields and recipient identifiers. Contract downloads contain prime award transactions. XH1B’s use of recipient identifiers for employer links is its own processing step. Checked 2026-10-18.

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5. XH1B method or registry · XH1B. [Displacement Model and Assumptions](https://www.xh1b.org/displacement). Eligibility, requested-position weighting, scopes, WARN matching, and counting limits. Model outputs are estimates. A matched layoff notice does not prove that an H-1B worker replaced a laid-off worker.

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6. XH1B method or registry · XH1B. [Downstream Research and Methods](https://www.xh1b.org/downstream#downstream-methods). Study populations, parameter bounds, baselines, and expected outcomes; linked model card.