Assumption County

Outcome statistics use the displayed exposure. Baselines, coefficients, annual family schedules and component records retain their source normalization.

{
  "displayed_workers": 10.965,
  "source_normalization_workers": 1,
  "applicability": {
    "excess_deaths": {
      "status": "illustrative_reference_calculation",
      "eligible_for_public_headline": false,
      "target_population": null,
      "decision": null,
      "transport_assumptions": [
        "high-tenure male mass-layoff cohort, ages 45–54",
        "Pennsylvania early-1980s response transported to target place and calendar time",
        "fixed baseline age rate over follow-up; cohort aging is not modeled"
      ],
      "reason": "Target cohort applicability and transport have not been established for this outcome; display as an illustrative reference calculation."
    },
    "child_lifetime_earnings_lost_usd": {
      "status": "illustrative_reference_calculation",
      "eligible_for_public_headline": false,
      "target_population": null,
      "decision": null,
      "transport_assumptions": [
        "Canadian father-son firm-closure estimate transported to the target families",
        "US male synthetic career earnings convert a relative adult earnings effect to dollars",
        "lifetime dollars are undiscounted; this is not an annual loss"
      ],
      "reason": "Target cohort applicability and transport have not been established for this outcome; display as an illustrative reference calculation."
    }
  },
  "target_population": null,
  "projection_eligibility": {
    "child": {
      "status": "direct_estimate",
      "eligible_for_validated_direct_contrast": true,
      "reason": "direct displacement-to-child adult earnings estimate; transport still requires an applicability decision"
    },
    "grandchild": {
      "status": "structural_projection",
      "eligible_for_validated_direct_contrast": false,
      "reason": "combines a direct child estimate with an intergenerational persistence assumption; not an identified displacement intervention effect"
    },
    "greatgrandchild": {
      "status": "source_withdrawn",
      "eligible_for_validated_direct_contrast": false,
      "reason": "source withdrawn for grandchild_earnings->greatgrandchild_earnings: The source measures earnings for three generations and education for four. It does not estimate .55 causal gap transmission to a fourth earnings generation. Retaining a projection would require an explicit uncalibrated assumption, not a source-identified default."
    }
  },
  "child_applicability": {
    "source": "oreopoulos2008",
    "source_age_at_displacement": [
      10,
      14
    ],
    "source_child_sex": "Male",
    "source_parent_sex": "Male",
    "source_geography": "Canada",
    "source_event": "father firm closure 1980-1982",
    "target_child_profiles": null,
    "incompatible_children": [],
    "unknown_children": [],
    "source_income_quartile": null,
    "income_rank_definition": null,
    "eligible_for_reviewed_transport": false,
    "status": "unknown",
    "limitations": [
      "No response curve across child ages is identified by this narrow cohort.",
      "Income groups refer to father's average pre-displacement income in 1978-1979; target rank mapping requires a transport argument.",
      "A subgroup's nonsignificant coefficient is retained with its uncertainty, not replaced with zero."
    ]
  },
  "child_valuation": null,
  "assumptions": {
    "mortality_method": "odds_survival",
    "mortality_timing": "Source-offset profile: displacement, +1, +2–3, +4–5, and +6+; displacement is follow-up year 1, so offset +6 begins in follow-up year 7. Annual baseline rates use a constant-hazard rate-to-risk conversion; odds ratios modify annual risk, and survival compounds across phases. The selected baseline age rate is held fixed over the follow-up horizon.",
    "mortality_contract": {
      "method": "odds_survival",
      "timing": "source_profile",
      "baseline_conversion": "1-exp(-annual_rate)",
      "phases": [
        {
          "phase": "displacement",
          "start_offset": 0,
          "duration_years": 1,
          "first_follow_up_year": 1
        },
        {
          "phase": "offset_1",
          "start_offset": 1,
          "duration_years": 1,
          "first_follow_up_year": 2
        },
        {
          "phase": "offsets_2_3",
          "start_offset": 2,
          "duration_years": 2,
          "first_follow_up_year": 3
        },
        {
          "phase": "offsets_4_5",
          "start_offset": 4,
          "duration_years": 2,
          "first_follow_up_year": 5
        },
        {
          "phase": "offset_6_plus",
          "start_offset": 6,
          "duration_years": null,
          "first_follow_up_year": 7
        }
      ],
      "description": "Source-offset profile: displacement, +1, +2–3, +4–5, and +6+; displacement is follow-up year 1, so offset +6 begins in follow-up year 7. Annual baseline rates use a constant-hazard rate-to-risk conversion; odds ratios modify annual risk, and survival compounds across phases. The selected baseline age rate is held fixed over the follow-up horizon."
    },
    "place_application": "initial_only",
    "place_counterfactual": "national child-dollar result is the reference"
  },
  "exposure_provenance": {
    "source": "one-worker normalized reference input",
    "method": "scale by the stored warehouse worker-equivalent exposure at read time"
  },
  "place": null,
  "place_mix": [],
  "input_content_sha256": "a771d456f24b73ab4a27e51e83ec07640a0d93114d4ffc968aae925e700d843d",
  "engine_version": "0.4.1",
  "bundle_sha256": "d84162591c94d06c8148c4834ae705ff3f9a015c29955d95d26749834cd136ed",
  "exposure_input_sha256": "8b4c78f6529f0fbefd8fc3154c9e9b976065d910b4c6e9d55690e36d5c3cdeaa",
  "input_hash": null,
  "engine_sha256": "d84162591c94d06c8148c4834ae705ff3f9a015c29955d95d26749834cd136ed",
  "adapter_sha256": "5fe4b51a9cebfb247cfcd74c734a2b6cb0eae44fce1073917b01455525c6ae52",
  "outcomes": {
    "excess_deaths": {
      "point": 0.3153394624162853,
      "low": 0.12349096235997434,
      "high": 0.5492983085167761,
      "unit": "deaths",
      "baseline": {
        "value": 0.004944,
        "annual_probability": 0.004931798548274205,
        "unit": "deaths_per_person_year",
        "citation": "cdc_wonder D76 (Underlying Cause of Death, 1999-2020), Male 45-54 years, pooled 2015-2019: 514314 deaths / 104024440 person-years = 494.4 per 100k; pulled 2026-09-06 via scraper.cli wonder-mortality into warehouse wonder_mortality",
        "population": "US prime-age men (45-54)",
        "notes": "Pre-pandemic window: excludes 2020 (COVID-distorted; 2020 crude rate 601.5/100k). Single-year 2019 = 490.0/100k. Ages 45-54 match the Sullivan & von Wachter prime-age counterfactual population",
        "sex": "Male",
        "age": "45-54 years",
        "years": "2015-2019",
        "cause": "All causes",
        "geography": "US"
      },
      "steps": [
        {
          "link": "earnings_shock->mortality_peak",
          "phase": "displacement",
          "point": 2.6698,
          "low": 2.1144,
          "high": 3.3711,
          "citation": "sullivan2009",
          "tier": "canonical",
          "population_scope": "US high-seniority displaced men born 1930-1959",
          "evidence_role": "conditional"
        },
        {
          "link": "earnings_shock->mortality_offset_1",
          "phase": "offset_1",
          "point": 1.9838,
          "low": 1.3697,
          "high": 2.8732,
          "citation": "sullivan2009",
          "tier": "canonical",
          "population_scope": "US high-seniority displaced men born 1930-1959",
          "evidence_role": "conditional"
        },
        {
          "link": "earnings_shock->mortality_offsets_2_3",
          "phase": "offsets_2_3",
          "point": 1.7315,
          "low": 1.3238,
          "high": 2.2649,
          "citation": "sullivan2009",
          "tier": "canonical",
          "population_scope": "US high-seniority displaced men born 1930-1959",
          "evidence_role": "conditional"
        },
        {
          "link": "earnings_shock->mortality_offsets_4_5",
          "phase": "offsets_4_5",
          "point": 1.2712,
          "low": 0.97,
          "high": 1.6661,
          "citation": "sullivan2009",
          "tier": "canonical",
          "population_scope": "US high-seniority displaced men born 1930-1959",
          "evidence_role": "conditional"
        },
        {
          "link": "earnings_shock->mortality_sustained",
          "phase": "offset_6_plus",
          "point": 1.1354,
          "low": 1.0335,
          "high": 1.2474,
          "citation": "sullivan2009",
          "tier": "canonical",
          "population_scope": "US high-seniority displaced men born 1930-1959",
          "evidence_role": "conditional"
        }
      ],
      "components": {
        "follow_up_years": 20,
        "method": "odds_survival",
        "timing": "source_profile"
      },
      "applicability": {
        "status": "illustrative_reference_calculation",
        "eligible_for_public_headline": false,
        "target_population": null,
        "decision": null,
        "transport_assumptions": [
          "high-tenure male mass-layoff cohort, ages 45–54",
          "Pennsylvania early-1980s response transported to target place and calendar time",
          "fixed baseline age rate over follow-up; cohort aging is not modeled"
        ],
        "reason": "Target cohort applicability and transport have not been established for this outcome; display as an illustrative reference calculation."
      },
      "interpretation": "Conditional modeled expected difference; parameter bands are support envelopes, not a confidence interval.",
      "persistence_sensitivity": {
        "available": true,
        "status": "declared_structural_sensitivity",
        "eligible_for_public_headline": false,
        "unit": "deaths",
        "variants": {
          "source_profile": {
            "point": 0.3153394624162853,
            "low": 0.12349096235997434,
            "high": 0.5492983085167761,
            "evidence_status": "source_profile_with_transport_assumptions",
            "citations": [
              "sullivan2009"
            ]
          },
          "no_sustained_excess": {
            "point": 0.2250385504350224,
            "low": 0.10077783875123213,
            "high": 0.38773638807135685,
            "evidence_status": "structural_assumption",
            "motivating_citations": [
              "eliasonstorrie2009"
            ],
            "assumption": "Retain source odds through offset +5; set offset +6 onward OR=1.",
            "first_changed_follow_up_year": 7,
            "fixed_late_odds_ratio": 1
          }
        },
        "source_minus_no_sustained_point": 0.09030091198126287,
        "structural_point_range": {
          "low": 0.2250385504350224,
          "high": 0.3153394624162853,
          "interpretation": "Range of point estimates across these two assumptions; not a confidence interval or a bound on the true effect."
        },
        "shared_inputs": [
          "exposure",
          "resolved mortality baseline",
          "follow-up horizon",
          "source odds through offset +5"
        ],
        "limitations": [
          "No probabilities or model-average weights are assigned to the structures.",
          "A nonsignificant long-run estimate does not establish an exactly zero effect.",
          "The Swedish study differs in population, design, effect scale and follow-up; this hybrid does not reproduce its estimates or substitute its hazard ratios for odds ratios.",
          "The cutoff follows the source profile's offset +6 phase, not the Swedish study's windows; persistence beyond its 12-year follow-up is an assumption in either direction.",
          "Baseline aging and target-population transport remain unresolved in both structures."
        ]
      }
    },
    "child_lifetime_earnings_lost_usd": {
      "point": 5251073.218776002,
      "low": 1363915.1217600012,
      "high": 8865448.29144,
      "steps": [
        {
          "link": "displacement->child_earnings",
          "kind": "direct",
          "citation": "oreopoulos2008",
          "tier": "EXACT",
          "param_point": 0.9076,
          "param_low": 0.844,
          "param_high": 0.976,
          "value_point": 0.9076,
          "value_low": 0.844,
          "value_high": 0.976,
          "causal_role": "direct_displacement_estimate",
          "population_scope": "Canada 39k father-son pairs firm closures",
          "evidence_role": "conditional"
        }
      ],
      "unit": "usd_2024",
      "baseline": {
        "value": 2591418,
        "unit": "usd_2024",
        "citation": "SSA Annual Statistical Supplement 2025, Table 4.B6 (CWHS/Master Earnings File, 1 percent sample): male median earnings by age, 2023 (preliminary) — synthetic career ages 20-64 = 5x(24218+42561+52485+60423+64962+67506+68160+64854)+2x60666+3x56666 = 2517175 usd_2023; CPI-U annual averages 304.702->313.689 (BLS series CUUR0000SA0, pulled 2026-09-06) -> 2591418 usd_2024; warehouse ssa_median_earnings (pulled via ssa-earnings-download)",
        "population": "US male median lifetime earnings",
        "notes": "Derivation declared: the cross-sectional age profile summed over a 45-year working life (ages 20-64) is a synthetic cohort — the sum of age-band medians approximates rather than equals the median of individual lifetime sums; median-of-workers semantics excludes non-working years; 2023 medians are preliminary (SSA replaces them with final data in a later edition)"
      },
      "applicability": {
        "status": "illustrative_reference_calculation",
        "eligible_for_public_headline": false,
        "target_population": null,
        "decision": null,
        "transport_assumptions": [
          "Canadian father-son firm-closure estimate transported to the target families",
          "US male synthetic career earnings convert a relative adult earnings effect to dollars",
          "lifetime dollars are undiscounted; this is not an annual loss"
        ],
        "reason": "Target cohort applicability and transport have not been established for this outcome; display as an illustrative reference calculation."
      },
      "interpretation": "Conditional modeled expected difference; parameter bands are support envelopes, not a confidence interval."
    }
  }
}